City Council awarded a contract last week for a study to determine the “saturation rate” of housing in downtown Rahway, updating a similar study done 20 years ago that helped to launch redevelopment efforts.

The governing body unanimously approved a resolution (AR-52-19) during its regular meeting on Feb. 11 to award a $24,000 professional services contract to JLL Americas. The New York-based firm, formerly known as Jones Lang Lasalle, submitted a proposal Jan. 1.

The resolution noted that the city “has a need for the services of a firm specializing in analyzing market characteristics, assessing its need for additional housing, and creating a framework for econometric analysis consulting services to perform” the work located in the Central Business District.

A similar study conducted in 1999 determined the downtown business district could absorb about an additional 1,500 housing units, Division of Planning Director and Assistant Redevelopment Director Cynthia Solomon told the Redevelopment Agency during its Feb. 6 meeting. I’ve been unable to track down a copy of the original 1999 housing study.

It’s time to update that study, she told commissioners, and ensure that downtown is not being overbuilt. The study will see what the “saturation level” is and what should be planning for the future, Solomon said.

UPDATED, Feb. 20: Here’s a copy of the Jan. 1 proposal from JLL, obtained Wednesday through an Open Public Records Act (OPRA) request to the Redevelopment Agency, explaining what the firm specifically examine as part of its absorption study. JLL Director of Econometrics Reginald Ross will “analyze market characteristics of the Central Business District to assess its need for additional housing, if any, and provide an analytics framework for:

• The housing levels, by year, at which oversupply is a likelihood given population, demographic and exiting supply grown trends.
• The types of housing that will be of most need given future trends; and,
• Identifying the areas new housing would be most complimentary to the city’s stated goals.”

JLL also will “create a framework for econometric analysis of any proposed project’s job creation benefits to the city.”

Downtown is likely to reach that 1,500-unit level once projects currently under construction complete their first phases. Three developments under construction at the moment are expected to add about 495 units to a total 1,126 units that have been built over the past 15 years or so, for a total 1,633 units. Once all three of those projects complete all phases of construction, they’re expected to add about 902 units in all, which would make for a grand total of about 2,040 units since the early 2000s.

By my count, there have been 1,126 units constructed within the Central Business District (CBD) Redevelopment Area since that last housing study:

• Carriage City Plaza (2009) — 222 units
• Jack and Margaret Meyers senior residence (2013) — 51 units
• Luciano’s Ristorante, upper floors (2008) — 14 units
• Meridia Lafayette Village (2016) — 115 units
• Meridia Water’s Edge (2014) — 108 units
• Metro Rahway (2014) — 116 units
• Park Square (2009, 2011) — 159 units
• River Place (2003) — 136 units
• Riverside Apartments (2003) — 31 units
• Riverwalk (2006) — 86 units
• The Gramercy (2019) – 42 units
• The Willows (2018) – 58 units

Most of those 12 developments listed are rentals. The only ones that were condos for sale were early units at Carriage City Plaza and Riverwalk. About 75 at Carriage City Plaza and 67 at Riverwalk sold before the housing market collapsed in 2008, with remaining units ultimately becoming rentals.

There are about 495 units currently under construction across three developments that ultimately will total 902 rental units once all phases are completed:

• Main & Monroe – 196 units (112 under construction in phase 1)
• Reva Rahway – 219 units
• The Brownstones – 487 units (172 under construction in phase 1)

That list does not include several other developments that were constructed outside the CBD redevelopment area, which total about 451 units:

• Meridia Grand (2010) — 88 units
• Brookside at Rahway (2012) — 50 units
• Heritage Village at Rosegate (2004) — 150 units
• Park Terrace (2005) –150 units
• Riverview Manor (2009) — 13 units

There are another 303 rental units that have been proposed only as concepts to the Redevelopment Agency in recent years but have not filed applications with the Planning or Zoning boards:

• 174 – Bridgeview
• 86 – Poplar Court
• 43 – Tamarand Cherry